2025 Best Lead Actor nominee Timothée Chalamet.
Oscars 2025: Gaslighting Edition
the fourth annual installment of an ancient copy tradition: Auveen’s Oscars Predictions.
By Auveen Dezgaran
02.24.2025
Been a chaotic one so far, hasn’t it? The Oscars are a week away as I write this, and yet due to the never-ending slump of January, the horrific LA fires, and the shocking discourse brought on by some of the nominees and their respective films, this Oscars season has felt like that relationship where you know how it’s gonna end but you still can’t stay away. With the Academy’s nominations acting like a manipulative ex-boyfriend and the actual nominees operating in Regina George-esque ways, the word that comes to mind for this year's Oscars race is: gaslighting. The film studios, the Academy, and even some nominees have used artful tactics to gaslight the audience with the goal of making sure that certain players come out on top.
Category Fraud
The Oscars have been known to be lenient on performance nominees when it comes to actual screen time in the Lead vs. Supporting Actor/Actress categories. This responsibility is also driven by the films’ distribution studios, the deciders of which actor to submit into which category to serve both a campaign’s narrative and the end goal of collecting the most awards. There have been instances where film distributors and the Academy have submitted and nominated actors for awards that do not represent their actual screen time for the relevant film, sparking conversations about “category fraud.”
A memorable example was when Viola Davis won Best Supporting Actress in 2016 for Fences, in which she plays a prominent role as the family’s matriarch. Meanwhile, her on-screen counterpart, Denzel Washington, received a Best Lead Actor nomination. Though it misrepresents her role’s weight in the film, this tactful placement may have helped Davis stand out as the dominating force in the Best Supporting Actress race, which led her to receive the award.
This year, the gaslighting is brought into effect with Netflix submitting Zoe Saldaña in the Best Supporting Actress category. Emilia Peréz begins with Saldaña as the lead, and the film follows her story until the titular character of Emilia Peréz, played by Karla Sofia Gascón (more on that later), becomes the narrative’s more prominent focus. However, despite its title and the later half of the plot revolving around the character of Emilia Peréz, Saldaña’s character, Rita, has 57 minutes of screen time, while Gascon’s character has 53 minutes. With Saldaña in Best Supporting Actress and Gascon in Best Lead Actress, the film has more chances of picking up awards in distinct categories as opposed to letting the actresses compete for the same prize.
Similarly to Saldaña, Kieran Culkin’s performance as Benji in A Real Pain secured him as a frontrunner in the Best Supporting Actor race despite his leading role in the film. In what IMDb describes as a “buddy comedy/drama,” Culkin’s character functions in conjunction with Jesse Eisenberg’s, and the two operate as a duo throughout the film. This makes a confusing argument for Culkin’s nomination in the Supporting Actor category. Despite Eisenberg competing for a spot in the Best Lead Actor race, his screen time is only four minutes more than Culkin’s. Yet with the two actors competing in separate categories, the film doesn’t have to compete against itself and can potentially collect more wins.
These nominations can gaslight the audience into thinking the significance of these characters is different than what was actually portrayed in the film. Rather than consider the heft and duration of a performance, studios tactically choose the category in which a nominated star is most likely to win an Oscar, reducing a celebration of art into a simple numbers game.
A memorable example was when Viola Davis won Best Supporting Actress in 2016 for Fences, in which she plays a prominent role as the family’s matriarch. Meanwhile, her on-screen counterpart, Denzel Washington, received a Best Lead Actor nomination. Though it misrepresents her role’s weight in the film, this tactful placement may have helped Davis stand out as the dominating force in the Best Supporting Actress race, which led her to receive the award.
This year, the gaslighting is brought into effect with Netflix submitting Zoe Saldaña in the Best Supporting Actress category. Emilia Peréz begins with Saldaña as the lead, and the film follows her story until the titular character of Emilia Peréz, played by Karla Sofia Gascón (more on that later), becomes the narrative’s more prominent focus. However, despite its title and the later half of the plot revolving around the character of Emilia Peréz, Saldaña’s character, Rita, has 57 minutes of screen time, while Gascon’s character has 53 minutes. With Saldaña in Best Supporting Actress and Gascon in Best Lead Actress, the film has more chances of picking up awards in distinct categories as opposed to letting the actresses compete for the same prize.
Similarly to Saldaña, Kieran Culkin’s performance as Benji in A Real Pain secured him as a frontrunner in the Best Supporting Actor race despite his leading role in the film. In what IMDb describes as a “buddy comedy/drama,” Culkin’s character functions in conjunction with Jesse Eisenberg’s, and the two operate as a duo throughout the film. This makes a confusing argument for Culkin’s nomination in the Supporting Actor category. Despite Eisenberg competing for a spot in the Best Lead Actor race, his screen time is only four minutes more than Culkin’s. Yet with the two actors competing in separate categories, the film doesn’t have to compete against itself and can potentially collect more wins.
These nominations can gaslight the audience into thinking the significance of these characters is different than what was actually portrayed in the film. Rather than consider the heft and duration of a performance, studios tactically choose the category in which a nominated star is most likely to win an Oscar, reducing a celebration of art into a simple numbers game.
Emilia Peréz (dir. Jacques Audiard, 2024)
Karla Sofia’s tweets + Emilia Peréz
One of the hot-button topics of this year’s Oscars race revolves around resurfaced racist tweets of Emilia Peréz star Karla Sofia Gascón, which have left the already controversial Emilia Peréz campaign in disarray.
In Gascón’s harmful tweets, which she shared between 2020 and 2022, she advertises her racist beliefs about Muslims and people of color, and she unfortunately even refers to her own costar Selena Gomez as a “rich rat.” Following the backlash, in a recent Instagram post, Gascon wrote that she wanted to take a step back from Emilia Peréz campaigning “to let the work talk for itself, hoping [her] silence will allow the film to be appreciated for what it is.” When asked about her tweet on Gomez, Gascón denounced it as fake and said “she would never refer to [Gomez] that way.” Gascón’s response unfortunately represents that of a typical gaslighter: denial, a lack of accountability, and a lack of growth, which do not help her chances of taking home the grand Best Lead Actress prize.
Prior to Gascóon’s tweets resurfacing, members of both the Mexican and the trans communities that Emilia Peréz depicts have condemned its stereotypical and disrespectful representations of them. Perhaps this is due to the writer and director of Emilia Peréz being Jacques Audiard, a cis, white, French man, telling an intimate story about a world in which he is an outsider. By giving 13 nominations to the writer/director’s flawed—even harmful—depiction of a community that he does not identify with, The Academy gaslights its audience, validating Emilia Peréz’s false efforts towards inclusivity despite the film lacking the personalization and authenticity that it allegedly strives for.
Despite the chaos of this year’s race and all the campaign politics behind it, only time will tell whether these nominees will receive rewards because or in spite of the skillful campaigns to both elevate and disparage their work. Based on the precursory awards of the season (BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globes), my predictions for the 2025 Oscars are below. Gaslighting not included…
In Gascón’s harmful tweets, which she shared between 2020 and 2022, she advertises her racist beliefs about Muslims and people of color, and she unfortunately even refers to her own costar Selena Gomez as a “rich rat.” Following the backlash, in a recent Instagram post, Gascon wrote that she wanted to take a step back from Emilia Peréz campaigning “to let the work talk for itself, hoping [her] silence will allow the film to be appreciated for what it is.” When asked about her tweet on Gomez, Gascón denounced it as fake and said “she would never refer to [Gomez] that way.” Gascón’s response unfortunately represents that of a typical gaslighter: denial, a lack of accountability, and a lack of growth, which do not help her chances of taking home the grand Best Lead Actress prize.
Prior to Gascóon’s tweets resurfacing, members of both the Mexican and the trans communities that Emilia Peréz depicts have condemned its stereotypical and disrespectful representations of them. Perhaps this is due to the writer and director of Emilia Peréz being Jacques Audiard, a cis, white, French man, telling an intimate story about a world in which he is an outsider. By giving 13 nominations to the writer/director’s flawed—even harmful—depiction of a community that he does not identify with, The Academy gaslights its audience, validating Emilia Peréz’s false efforts towards inclusivity despite the film lacking the personalization and authenticity that it allegedly strives for.
Despite the chaos of this year’s race and all the campaign politics behind it, only time will tell whether these nominees will receive rewards because or in spite of the skillful campaigns to both elevate and disparage their work. Based on the precursory awards of the season (BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globes), my predictions for the 2025 Oscars are below. Gaslighting not included…
Best Picture: Anora
An audience favorite, roller-coaster ride of a film that took home Best Feature at the Producers Guild Awards. In the past ten years, seven winners have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
Best Director: Sean Baker
The cinematic conductor of Anora, the moving and raucous Best Picture frontrunner. Baker took home the Best Director prize at the Directors Guild Awards. Nine out of the ten past winners have gone on to win Best Director.
Best Lead Actress: Demi Moore
A Hollywood veteran, Moore has won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG Awards for her gripping and electric performance in The Substance. Also, doesn’t everyone love a comeback story?
Best Lead Actor: Adrien Brody
Brody has won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA Awards for his robust performance in The Brutalist, where he is the leading character of the 3.5-hour epic.
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña
Saldaña has won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and SAG Awards for her central (!) performance in the controversial, Netflix-backed film.
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin
Culkin has won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and SAG Awards for his charming, Roman Roy-esque performance in the buddy comedy.